Trout Phishing

Garrett Richards can’t catch a break. After missing the last three months of the 2014 season with a torn patellar tendon, he’ll now miss the remainder of 2016 for Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow. As important as he was to the Angels rotation and playoff hopes, you could be forgiven for being surprised at the national reaction. FanGraphs, then SBNation, then ESPN all ran stories within hours of the injury tweet-nouncement, declaring this Angels team dead-in-the-water. Not just for this year, mind you, but for the years to come.

I’ll leave the explanation for just how screwed the Los Angeles of Anaheims are to writers wiser than I—Dave Cameron breaks it down somewhat tragically on FanGraphs. In summary: big, bad contracts, not a ton of talent around Trout, and a terrible farm system to boot. They’re currently calling up two guys from triple-A Salt Lake City to slot into the rotation. The crux: Should the Angels trade Michael Trout? Superlative superlative superlative? No! You don’t trade these guys. There’s no return you can get for a guy like that! Blasphemy! Impossible! Imprudent! Iconopoblastic! By gametime, it turned into this:

#Angels GM Billy Eppler on whether he would trade Mike Trout to start rebuild: "No chance. You don't move superstar players."

— Mike DiGiovanna (@MikeDiGiovanna) May 6, 2016

Nevertheless, absolutes are made to be broken. This is what the GM has to say right now. If you think about it though, it's not that hard to imagine a world where this could potentially happen. Which planets would have to align in order for this scenerio to play out?

Mike Trout is under contract thru this year, and then four more years after that through 2020. He's scheduled to make $20m next year (2017), and then $34m/year for the following three years. He deserves it. One of the undisputed top two players in the league along with Bryce Harper. He turns 25 in August, and will be 29 in his contract year. He provides value above and beyond almost any package you would receive back for him. Averaging 9.4 WAR in your first four full seasons in the Majors will do that for you.

In order for the Angels to trade him away, they will have to conclude that they won’t be able to spend their way to contention in free agency, nor will they be able to compete with the talent currently in the organization. As we've seen over the last few years with the Phillies, admitting that your window is closed for a few years and committing to a top-to-bottom organizational overhaul is not an easy or quick process. (Unless your owner is Jeffrey Loria.) Once they get over that hurtle, they'll also have to be willing to accept a package that isn’t "Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley Jr., Anderson Espinoza and Yoan Moncada", asGrant Brisbee so elegantly put it. Because no one will offer that kind of swap, period.

You have to also believe that Mr. Trout has an interest in playing in and winning some postseason baseball games. The Angels are in their fifth season with Trout, and they have finished third in the division in three of the last four years. Just one playoff appearance, which was a sweep at the hands of the Royals in 2014. He certainly does not seem like the kind of guy to force his way out of that organization. But, he may begin to realize he might not be able to get the postseason wins he desires by spending his prime years in Southern California.

Both the Angels and Mike Trout are not yet ready to come to these conclusions. They may still not be ready at the end of this season. But, say the Angels have another subpar start next spring, and then the spring after that... these scenarios aren't that absurd. It's not like superstars aren't ever traded.

When a 27 year old Alex Rodriguez went-and-then-didn’t go to the Red Sox in 2004, he was playing the best baseball of his career. The deal was to be for Manny (age 32, four more All-Star seasons ahead of him) and Lester (age 20, single A, tippy top prospect), with a contract reduction that eventually scuttled it. When he then went to the Yankees, it was for Soriano (age 28, 3-time All-Star) and a top prospect (which could have been Robinson Cano, but ended up being Joaquin Arias). The Rangers ate significant money on that contract because they wanted to "save what they could, [and] move on".

Let’s say, just for the sake of the rest of this article, the Angels eventually look over this event horizon, and start considering it.

Cameron’s article mentions the Dodgers and Red Sox as potential suitors for obvious reasons. They’re actually contenders right now— Hey, not that the Phillies aren’t, but, you know. The eventual ESPN article that came out also mentions the Cubs, Rangers, and Rockies. But I'm not writing this article to talk about anything other than bringing the Millville Meteor home where he belongs.

The Phillies have what sometimes feels like a sudden wealth of youth in the system, and they have the money to spend with the big boys. As we all hope, they’re not too far away from contention. Young pitching, prospects getting ready to make their major league debuts in due time... this team could look even younger and stronger in a year. They'll also be without Ryan Howard’s $25m annuity on the books after this offseason. Of course, paying the man is not the issue. The issue is prying him out of Anaheim without ruining the promising crop of youngsters RAJ has acquired over the last few years while we’re at it. The Phillies don’t have a big time Major League proven talent to include like a Manny or Soriano.

So, what’s the package? 5 guys and a cheeseburger? (read: cash considerations)

1. If Odubel Herrera continues to be a walking man in an OBP world, send him to take Trout's place.
2. A major league level pitcher, such as Jered Eickhoff?
3. One of our two catching prospects: Knapp or Alfaro?
4. An outfield prospect like Altherr or Quinn (maybe go even younger.. Cornelius Randolph?)
5. PTBNL? Another pitcher or two?

Seems like a lot. In reality, probably not even enough. But, we're talking planetary alignment here. Dream scenarios. I wouldn’t bet on it. Quite frankly, not even sure I’d want to do it, depending on just how much it takes, and how well some of these guys develop. But I don't think it's so out of the question. Mike Trout would be taking somewhat of a risk on postseason dreams by coming to an as of yet unproven Phillies core. But as I said above, this team could look even more promising in a year's time. Maybe a little home cooking could be just what the Trout is looking for.

So, say your prayers to Base Ba’al every night, and for now, keep being thrilled with the excitement of 2016 that is the stellar nebulous of Vela-Nova, and the promise of Iron Pigs yet to come.

This post was published as a FanShot on the SBNation Phillies blog "The Good Phight". The photo shown above was not included, because SBNation is a business and doesn't like getting sued for using photos illegally. Luckily, I'm not as concerned about that here.
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2016/5/7/11617692/trout-phishing