Intelligence Committee
Bernard, go into analysis mode.
The knockout stage is almost set; our gifts are almost prepared. And while you can't know how everyone will re-seed, you can know what everyone started with. Armed with this knowledge, you can try to re-seed your bracket in a way that gives you a fighting chance to win it all. A quick reminder that there are 67 entries in the tournament, so that is the denominator for all percentages. As I am apparently an aspiring BuzzFeed listicile-ist, here are my top five things to know about the current Kremlin Cup field:
1. The Favorites Are (Were) Favorites
Brazil (21 entries) and Germany (20) make up two thirds of everyone's picks to lift the trophy. That's a lot of sad Germans re-seeding to new winners in the next 48 hours. No other champion pick even cracks double digits. Argentina (9) are in after being on the brink, but France (6), Spain (5), Belgium (4), and Portugal (2) have all looked decent enough to bring hope to these long odds picks.
2. Elite Eight
These are the teams everyone most commonly had winning their first game in the knockout stage. (Remember, even if the team didn't make it into the bracket where you had them, you can still move them down to their real slot and get full points if they win.) Everyone has something to re-seed with the Germans, who were the only unanimous pick into the quarterfinals! Past that, the Brazilians were near unanimous (65/67). Other favorites include Spain and Argentina (57), France (56), and Belgium (52). A big drop-off gets us to Portugal (38), England (37), Uruguay (31), and Colombia (29). Some less-picked squads that still have a chance are Croatia (6), Senegal (5), Denmark (4), and Mexico (2).
Shouts to those who took Poland (10), Egypt, Peru (8 each), Iceland (3), and Panama (1) into the quarters.... you'll want to change those picks for half points.
3. Semifinals
More German schadenfreude. 63 of 67 entries have the Germans into the Final Four, so plenty of people going for six points (instead of a full 12) with at least one of their four semifinal picks. Brazil is very common here (54), as well as France (43), Argentina (31), and Spain (30) getting love.
Big drop, again, after those top 5 vote-getters. Uruguay (12), Belgium (10), Portugal (9), and England (6) are less common, and Croatia (2), Denmark, and Mexico (1 each) are the rarest Semifinalists of all. Those taking Peru (4) and Egypt (2) this far will have to find a new slant.
4. Finalists
Slightly less German schadenfreude, but still over half. 38 entries had "Die Mannschaft this far", and will be seeking a new finalist for 6 points instead of a full 12. The other pool-favorite was Brazil, with 42 entries hoping for an appearance. The other seven picks are spread more thin, all with a fighting chance. 15 entries a piece have France or Argentina in the finals, but only one of them will make the quarters! Same situation with Uruguay and Portugal (3 entries each). Other finalists chosen include Spain (10 entries), Belgium (7), and a sole picker of England.
5. Third Place
This matters! Even with a re-seed, three points could be what separates you from the pack! The most common pick, again, is the Germans, who were chosen in 20 entries. The singular Peruvian and Egyptian picks have also lost complete value here. Choices still getting a full six points include France (12), Spain, Argentina (10 each), Brazil, England (4 each), Portugal (2), and a single Croatia (me!).
6. Bonus! Politics!
Everyone's favorite topic these days! Lucky for you, we're staying non-partisan here. Also, you can't re-seed these, but they're funny to talk about. There is some gold in this file... I would encourage a quick skim of column DJ. As for the statistics: the majority of entries said there would NOT be an indictment (39) during the tournament, but an even larger majority said that the Don WOULD tweet about the tournament (59), during the tournament.
There is a infinitesimal chance that the tournament comes down to these tiebreakers, but boy will I laugh when it does.
The knockout stage is almost set; our gifts are almost prepared. And while you can't know how everyone will re-seed, you can know what everyone started with. Armed with this knowledge, you can try to re-seed your bracket in a way that gives you a fighting chance to win it all. A quick reminder that there are 67 entries in the tournament, so that is the denominator for all percentages. As I am apparently an aspiring BuzzFeed listicile-ist, here are my top five things to know about the current Kremlin Cup field:
1. The Favorites Are (Were) Favorites
Brazil (21 entries) and Germany (20) make up two thirds of everyone's picks to lift the trophy. That's a lot of sad Germans re-seeding to new winners in the next 48 hours. No other champion pick even cracks double digits. Argentina (9) are in after being on the brink, but France (6), Spain (5), Belgium (4), and Portugal (2) have all looked decent enough to bring hope to these long odds picks.
2. Elite Eight
These are the teams everyone most commonly had winning their first game in the knockout stage. (Remember, even if the team didn't make it into the bracket where you had them, you can still move them down to their real slot and get full points if they win.) Everyone has something to re-seed with the Germans, who were the only unanimous pick into the quarterfinals! Past that, the Brazilians were near unanimous (65/67). Other favorites include Spain and Argentina (57), France (56), and Belgium (52). A big drop-off gets us to Portugal (38), England (37), Uruguay (31), and Colombia (29). Some less-picked squads that still have a chance are Croatia (6), Senegal (5), Denmark (4), and Mexico (2).
Shouts to those who took Poland (10), Egypt, Peru (8 each), Iceland (3), and Panama (1) into the quarters.... you'll want to change those picks for half points.
3. Semifinals
More German schadenfreude. 63 of 67 entries have the Germans into the Final Four, so plenty of people going for six points (instead of a full 12) with at least one of their four semifinal picks. Brazil is very common here (54), as well as France (43), Argentina (31), and Spain (30) getting love.
Big drop, again, after those top 5 vote-getters. Uruguay (12), Belgium (10), Portugal (9), and England (6) are less common, and Croatia (2), Denmark, and Mexico (1 each) are the rarest Semifinalists of all. Those taking Peru (4) and Egypt (2) this far will have to find a new slant.
4. Finalists
Slightly less German schadenfreude, but still over half. 38 entries had "Die Mannschaft this far", and will be seeking a new finalist for 6 points instead of a full 12. The other pool-favorite was Brazil, with 42 entries hoping for an appearance. The other seven picks are spread more thin, all with a fighting chance. 15 entries a piece have France or Argentina in the finals, but only one of them will make the quarters! Same situation with Uruguay and Portugal (3 entries each). Other finalists chosen include Spain (10 entries), Belgium (7), and a sole picker of England.
5. Third Place
This matters! Even with a re-seed, three points could be what separates you from the pack! The most common pick, again, is the Germans, who were chosen in 20 entries. The singular Peruvian and Egyptian picks have also lost complete value here. Choices still getting a full six points include France (12), Spain, Argentina (10 each), Brazil, England (4 each), Portugal (2), and a single Croatia (me!).
6. Bonus! Politics!
Everyone's favorite topic these days! Lucky for you, we're staying non-partisan here. Also, you can't re-seed these, but they're funny to talk about. There is some gold in this file... I would encourage a quick skim of column DJ. As for the statistics: the majority of entries said there would NOT be an indictment (39) during the tournament, but an even larger majority said that the Don WOULD tweet about the tournament (59), during the tournament.
There is a infinitesimal chance that the tournament comes down to these tiebreakers, but boy will I laugh when it does.
Thank you for that analysis Bernard...
ReplyDeleteI am quite disappointed that Germany has ceased all motor functions...
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